NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:What's at stake for Texas when it travels to Alabama in Week 2 of college football

No. 3 Alabama's last regular-season non-conference loss came during the Bush administration – that would be NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centerthe son, W., and not the father, even though it may feel like decades.

Sixteen years, to be exact: Louisiana-Monroe defeated Alabama 21-17 in 2007, coach Nick Saban's first season. In the years since, Saban has said how that game proved that teams "can freaking lose to anybody."

Of this No. 10 Texas is fully and painfully aware. Just under third-year coach Steve Sarkisian, the Longhorns have lost at least once to every Big 12 team except for Kansas State and dropped all three non-conference games against opponents from the Power Five.

One of those three defeats was last year's 20-19 heartbreaker at home to the Crimson Tide. To Sarkisian's credit, the Longhorns were able to rally from that point to win eight games and finish No. 25 in the US LBM Coaches Poll.

Even still, something is missing in Austin: the marquee win. Alabama presents one of the toughest challenges in college football, one doubled by the environment at Bryant–Denny Stadium. The Crimson Tide also present an opportunity for the Longhorns to justify the preseason hype and say with a straight face: We're back.

This time, we might believe it. That's just one thing at stake for Texas heading into the biggest game of the non-conference season.

Texas can turn skeptics into believers

The hype around Texas comes and goes, but make no mistake: It may go, but it always comes back. This year is no exception. After a horror show of a 2021 season, last year's rebound made the Longhorns the preseason conference favorite ahead of Kansas State, rival Oklahoma and defending national runner-up TCU.

There's a good amount of justification for the acclaim. Texas has recruited at a nearly unmatched level under Sarkisian, accumulating the sort of difference-making talent that can stand toe to toe with Alabama, Georgia, Michigan and the best teams in the Bowl Subdivision.

That there hasn't been national buy-in about the Longhorns' chances of reaching the College Football Playoff is a reflection of two factors. One, a good chunk of the roster remains unproven. That may even include third-year quarterback Quinn Ewers, who had flashes of brilliance during his 2022 season but has to master the consistency needed to rank among the nation's best at the position.

And two, we've been burned before. Is this Texas team for real? Beating Alabama would turn even the most diehard skeptics into believers, especially with the win coming on the road.

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The Longhorns can get an inside track to the playoff

They'd still need to win the Big 12 to ensure a top-four finish in the final playoff rankings, but a win against Alabama would give the Longhorns some major room for error with conference play beginning later this month.

This would be the ultimate feather in any team's cap: a win against the mighty Crimson Tide, and on the road, no less. While it's impossible to predict how the playoff selection committee will view Saturday's result, it's safe to say the group will place an extremely high value on a non-conference win in the regular season that no Power Five opponent has secured during the Saban era.

With a win against Alabama in hand – and assuming the Tide finish in the top three or four in the SEC, which is one of the safest bets in sports – the Longhorns could lose a regular-season conference game and still reach the playoff with room to spare, based on the history of the format.

That could be a moot point. If Texas can beat Alabama, is there really anyone in the Big 12 who can beat Texas?

Quinn Ewers and the Heisman Trophy

Ewers entered the season with the nation's third-best Heisman odds after a hit-or-miss first year in the starting lineup. There were high points, namely his four-touchdown performance in a 49-0 blowout of rival Oklahoma. Ewers was even terrific in limited duty in the loss to Alabama, completing 9 of 12 throws for 134 yards in a single quarter before leaving the game with a shoulder injury.

A healthier, slimmed-down, mullet-less Ewers drew rave reviews during the offseason, which saw him quickly fend off a soft challenge for the starting job from five-star true freshman Arch Manning. In the opener against Rice, Ewers completed 19 of 30 attempts for 260 yards and three touchdowns and an interception.

As with Texas as a whole, people are waiting for Ewers to have his breakthrough moment. Multiple touchdowns, no major mistakes and a win would give Heisman voters more than enough reason to push Ewers to the front of the early-season line.

Steve Sarkisian can change the narrative

Sarkisian's reputation as an offensive coordinator blossomed during his two years at Alabama, which culminated with the best offense in program history during an unbeaten 2020 season.

That recognition has not translated to his three separate Power Five stints as a head coach, which have instead been defined by unrealized expectations, head-scratching losses and consistent failures in games against ranked competition.

Sarkisian is 2-7 against ranked teams at Texas and just 1-7 in such games against the Power Five. (He opened his tenure with a win against then-No. 23 Louisiana-Lafayette.) Including previous stops at Washington and Southern California, his teams are 11-28 against ranked competition.

There is a narrative around Sarkisian as a head coach, and it's not entirely flattering: He can build a roster and an offense but struggles translating that to Saturdays.

That description might change for good should the Longhorns score the upset as roughly a touchdown underdog.

Texas can make an SEC-size statement

Texas and Oklahoma will leave the Big 12 after this season for the SEC. Opinions are mixed on how well this pair will make this transition, but everyone can agree on this: it won't be easy.

With another year until kicking off life in the SEC, Texas can make a statement that reverberates through Tuscaloosa, Athens and the conference offices in Birmingham.

That would be just part of the long-term benefit stemming from a win against the Tide. In addition to becoming a playoff favorite, there'd be another big boost to an already strong recruiting machine.

And getting past the Tide would allow Texas to roll out the red carpet in advance of life in the SEC. Instead of being doubted, the Longhorns might be picked to finish near the top of the conference — and they would've earned that respect.